Chinese exports rose 58 percent to 4.412 million units in the January-November period, compared with Japan’s full-year forecast of 4.3 million units. Most of China’s exports are oil vehicles, but EV growth has increased by 80%, and it is believed that China’s exports in 2030 will double from 2023 to more than 10 million units.
China’s car exports will surpass Japan’s in 2023 and become the world’s largest for the first time. As Chinese automakers expand their sales to Russia, Mexico as a springboard to North America, and Europe and Southeast Asia, where they continue to shift to pure electric vehicles (EVs), it is believed that China’s exports in 2030 will double from 2023 to more than 10 million units.
While Chinese companies are gaining influence in the global auto market, European countries, which are trying to protect their own industries and maintain jobs by reducing subsidies for Chinese EV purchases, are increasingly wary of the influx of Chinese cars.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s exports in the January-November period rose 58 per cent year on year to 4.412 million units. Japan’s exports from January to November increased by 15% to 3.99 million units, and are expected to be only about 4.3 million units in 2023.
China’s export figures for the first half of the year have already surpassed Japan’s, and the full-year number will also become a reality. In terms of comparable national data, this will be the first time since 2016 that Japan has fallen from the top spot in car exports. In 2016, Germany ranked first in car exports.
From January to October, China’s exports to Russia reached 730,000 vehicles, a seven-fold increase from the same period last year. Most of China’s exports are gasoline cars, while Chery Motor Co. and Great Wall Motor Co. exported medium – and large-sized SUVs to Russia.
After Russia, the second largest increase in exports was Mexico, which increased 71 percent to 330,000 units. Chinese manufacturers strive to first open up sales in Mexico, win over consumers, and then enter the North American market such as the United States and Canada as the main battlegrounds. Shanghai Automotive Group, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group and Chery Automobile, among others, have increased exports.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the export of new energy vehicles such as EV increased by 77% from January to October, reaching 1.43 million units. It accounted for 34% of the total.
Most of China’s exports are gasoline and diesel cars, while new energy vehicles are mostly for Europe and Southeast Asia. Tesla of the United States and BYD, the world’s second largest EV manufacturer, are the main car manufacturers.
Byd’s main model is the SUV ATTO3, which is priced at 38,000 euros in Europe. Compared with the average EV price in the European region, which is between 50,000 and 60,000 euros, BYD is attracting consumers.
In particular, Chinese car exports are increasing in Southeast Asia, where Japanese manufacturers have a high market share.
With Japanese companies lagging behind in EV transformation, Chinese companies are taking market share. From the perspective of China’s new energy vehicle export destinations from January to October, Asia is close to Europe, and Thailand has reached twice that of the previous year, surpassing the United Kingdom.
A senior executive of a large Chinese state-owned automobile company said, We will enter an era of competition with Japanese companies in the Southeast Asian market.
Alixpartners forecasts that China’s exports will be around 5.4 million units in 2023 and could exceed 10 million units in 2030. If China’s bloated domestic inventory flows to neighboring countries, it could lead to oversupply, driving down car prices.
China’s excess capacity and export expansion have also occurred in other industries, such as steel, and later contributed to the deterioration of world markets from China. Chinese auto makers have outlined a strategy of expanding overseas markets through exports and shifting to local production. If the domestic demand downturn in China continues for a long time, the oversupply phenomenon involving other countries will also worsen, potentially affecting the operations of automakers and supply chains.