On June 15, local time, an important news about Ukraine came out: the European Parliament passed a resolution urging that Ukraine be invited to join NATO at the NATO summit in July.
The vote was 425 in favor, 38 against, and 42 abstentions. In the recent case of Ukraine launched several rounds of counter-offensive, but repeatedly repelled by the Russian side, the European Parliament’s decision is naturally unusual.
In fact, this news did not come out of the blue, and there were clues. Although the European Parliament has given the green light, will NATO’s door be easily opened to Ukraine? What does all this mean for the ongoing crisis in Ukraine? Nothing is known yet.
An important resolution
The MEPs stressed their expectation that Ukraine’s “accession process will begin and be completed as soon as possible after the end of the crisis.” So read a press release on the European Parliament’s website on the day of the vote.
Two key words worth noting in the statements of the legislators: first, after the crisis is over; Second, get it done quickly.
The Ukraine crisis has dragged on so far, all sides are tired and the world is wondering, when will it all end?
I’m afraid it’s hard to have a clear answer at the moment; I am afraid that the European Parliament is also difficult to estimate accurately.
On June 4, local time, Ukraine launched an offensive in the direction of South Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Artyomovsk, but so far it has not declared success. The Russian Defense Ministry said it repelled several rounds of attacks by Ukrainian forces.
The United States recently announced a new $2.1 billion military aid plan for Ukraine. During his visit to Kiev, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also announced $375 million in military aid to Ukraine.
Perhaps because of the high level of uncertainty, the European Parliament passed a resolution expressing urgency that Ukraine become a member of NATO “as soon as possible” and enter the alliance’s “nuclear umbrella.”
Just three days before the European Parliament vote, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda held talks under the “Weimar Triangle” mechanism, focusing on the situation in Ukraine.
First, discuss how the European military aid to Ukraine, how to help its successful counter-offensive, further coordination within Europe.
Macron later announced that the next few weeks will continue to provide Ukraine with weapons, ammunition and armored vehicles and other military equipment.
Secondly, the humanitarian issues arising from the situation of the Kakhovka hydropower Station were discussed.
Since the Kakhovka hydropower station was damaged by an attack about 10 days ago, the resulting flooding has claimed 18 lives and 7,500 people have been evacuated from the flooded area as of 15 June.
The third item for discussion has attracted much attention. According to the French president’s office, the three leaders discussed how to “give Ukraine long-term security guarantees.”
The issue is expected to be discussed at the NATO summit in Lithuania in July. It is believed that the three leaders intend to urge NATO to invite Ukraine to join.
A crucial summit
Earlier, the British “Guardian” quoted former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen as saying that at the NATO summit to be held in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July, if NATO cannot provide Kiev with “tangible security guarantees”, some NATO countries may send ground troops to Ukraine.
However, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, “Only a sovereign, independent and democratic Ukraine can become a member of NATO,” and “until Ukraine wins, it is impossible to talk about membership.”
According to the Elysee Palace, Western countries are concerned that the immediate admission of Ukraine to NATO would trigger Article 5 of the NATO charter, the principle of collective defense. The article obliges all NATO members to come to the aid of another member whose sovereignty or territorial integrity is threatened. That would leave NATO members “automatically drawn into a military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, triggering a new global crisis.”
Clearly, NATO’s choice is crucial. This also makes the outside world pay more attention to the crucial summit in July, even if NATO will not open the door to Ukraine, but will it be more deeply involved in the situation, and even meeting with weapons and swords with Russia?
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that there are still many difficulties in Ukraine’s accession to NATO. However, the Vilnius summit is expected to make a decision to expand military aid to Ukraine, and even to give Ukraine some kind of “post-war accession” diplomatic commitment.
At the same time, Zhang Hong believes that under the current state, it is unlikely that some Eastern and Central European countries will directly “intervene”. Without NATO’s collective security commitment, European countries would not dare to openly challenge Russia alone.
In any case, President Zelensky said the Ukrainian military was “disappointed” that Ukraine had not received a clear and positive response to joining the EU and NATO. He hopes to receive a clear invitation to join NATO at its summit in July.
Military drills’ drama ‘
In fact, NATO is currently more interested in “flexing its muscles” than making real moves.
On June 12, an air exercise described as NATO’s “largest in history” kicked off. 10,000 soldiers and about 250 aircraft from more than 20 countries, including the United States and Germany, participated in the exercise, involving Germany, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic and other countries.
B-1 strategic bombers, F35 fighters and long-range drones were deployed in the exercise, which was billed as aimed at “strengthening transatlantic military cooperation and training NATO’s ability to respond quickly to crises,” and included two special actors – non-NATO members Sweden and Japan.
In this regard, Zhang Hong pointed out that Japan’s participation in NATO military exercises, including the participation of Japan and South Korea in NATO summits and other activities, indicating that NATO’s “Asia-Pacific” is likely to speed up. The United States uses the Ukraine crisis to engage in bloc confrontation, which will bring division and risks to East Asia.
Zhang Hong also analyzed that since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, NATO and Russia have frequently demonstrated their strength to each other through military exercises. The NATO air exercise was designed to put pressure on Russia, and that goal has been achieved. Russia is also expanding its military and preparing for war, frequently conducting large-scale military exercises in multiple directions.
He further said that by now, NATO and Russia are not only showing strength, but also preparing for real engagement. From “verbal enemies” to “real adversaries in war,” both sides are preparing for extreme scenarios.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia has been trying to agree with NATO on European security principles for 30 years, but the response has been “shameless deception and lies, or pressure and intimidation.”
Putin also noted that NATO’s continued expansion and proximity to Russia’s borders, despite Moscow’s protests, forced Russia to take special military action because “there is no other way to respond.”