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\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u8f83\u6625\u5b63\u4f4e\u70b9\u4e0a\u6da8\u903e50%\uff0c\u6536\u590d\u4e86\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u5931\u5730\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9677\u5165\u4e25\u91cd\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u8bb8\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u90fd\u5728\u62bc\u6ce8\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u80a1\u4ef7\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u518d\u5ea6\u5f00\u59cb\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4eba\u58eb\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5c45\u4e8e10\u5e74\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5f62\u52bf\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u6570\u5e74\u4e00\u6837\u52a8\u8361\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u8be5\u5e02\u573a\u8fd8\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u591a\u4e45\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u6b63\u503c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u627f\u53d7\u5de8\u5927\u538b\u529b\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f30\u503c\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u9884\u8ba1\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u5c06\u52a0\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n
Stifel\u673a\u6784\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u4e3b\u7ba1Barry Bannister\u8868\u793a\u2236\u201c\u4f30\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u529e\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u91cd\u73b020\u4e16\u7eaa20\u5e74\u4ee3\u621690\u5e74\u4ee3\u6700\u540e\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u6307\u7684\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636eFactSet\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fc7\u53bb12\u4e2a\u6708\u5229\u6da6\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u5f80\u7ee9\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u4e3a25.26\u500d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u81ea2002\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4ee5\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u5229\u6da6\u9884\u671f\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u4e3a25.98\u500d\uff0c\u4e0a\u6b21\u8fbe\u5230\u8be5\u6c34\u5e73\u662f2000\u5e749\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636e\u9ad8\u76db\u96c6\u56e2(Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GS)\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4ee5\u9884\u671f\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8ba1\u76ee\u524d\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8640\u5e74\u524d\u5386\u53f2\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u7b2c100\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u672c\u8eab\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u7b2c98\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6807??\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387(CAPE ratio)\uff08\u5373\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387(Shiller P\/E)\uff09\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u8457\u773c\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb10\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u901a\u80c0\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u6839\u636e\u63a8\u5e7f\u8be5\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6807\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\uff0e\u5e2d\u52d2(Robert Shiller)\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u597d\u5904\u662f\u4ece\u66f4\u957f\u8fdc\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u4f30\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
8\u670811\u65e5\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u5347\u81f330.63\u500d\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u91cc\u5f88\u5c11\u5347\u7834\u8be5\u6c34\u5e73\u30021999\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u66fe\u8fbe\u523044.20\u500d\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u30021929\u5e74\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u66fe\u9ad8\u81f332.56\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u80a1\u5e02\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u624d\u8d70\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u5e74\u3002\u4ee5\u4f20\u5947\u6295\u8d44\u5bb6\u5df4\u83f2\u7279(Warren Buffett)\u547d\u540d\u7684\u201c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6807\u201d(Buffett Indicator)\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u80a1\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GDP)\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u54c8\u6492\u97e6\u516c\u53f8(Berkshire Hathaway Inc., BRKA)\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u66fe\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5f53\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u9ad8\u4e8eGDP\uff0c\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u8457\u80a1\u5e02\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ee5\u8fd9\u79cd\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u903e10\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21GDP\u8d85\u8fc7\u80a1\u5e02\u603b\u5e02\u503c\uff08\u5747\u7ecf\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\uff09\u662f\u57282009\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u80a1\u5e02\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u53ea\u5360GDP\u7684\u5927\u7ea693%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u81ea\u90a3\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u63a5\u8fd1GDP\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002\u636e\u4e16\u754c\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8054\u5408\u4f1a(World Federation of Exchanges)\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u4e3a35.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e2019\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u65f6\u768437.5\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u7ecf\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u6298\u5408\u5e74\u7387\u4e3a19.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8bb8\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u628a\u5e0c\u671b\u5bc4\u6258\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u82d7\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u5ef6\u957f\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u4f1a\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u632b\u6298\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6291\u5236\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u4e4b\u524d\u4ecd\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e0a\u8ff0\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4f30\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u4f30\u503c\u4f55\u65f6\u4f1a\u8d85\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u80c3\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u89c4\u5219\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6210\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\uff0c\u201dRobert W. Colby\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u7684Robert Colby\u8bf4\u3002\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u7ba1\u7406\u84572,000\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u201c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u5e02\u573a\u884c\u4e3a\u5c31\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u903b\u8f91\u53ef\u8a00\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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