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\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66(Ohio State University)\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388Trevon Logan\u79f0\u2236\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u6570\u5468\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u5c06\u8fd9\u7b14\u94b1\u9001\u5230\u4eba\u4eec\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u62d6\u6b20\u4e00\u4e9b\u503a\u52a1\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ca\u8be5\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8054\u5408\u4f5c\u8005Peter Ganong\u8868\u793a\u2236\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6709\u8865\u5145\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u91d1\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u201dGanong\u8868\u793a\u2236\u201c\u7531\u4e8e\u73b0\u5728\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u771f\u7684\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u751f\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
Ganong\u4e4b\u524d\u8054\u5408\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c600\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u4ee4\u9886\u53d6\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u7684\u4eba\u4e2d\u670968%\u7684\u4eba\u6536\u5165\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5931\u4e1a\u524d\u7684\u85aa\u8d44\uff0c\u5de5\u4eba\u9886\u5230\u7684\u6551\u6d4e\u91d1\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u66b4\u53d1\u524d\u5de5\u8d44\u6bd4\u503c\u4e2d\u503c\u4e3a134%\u3002\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u5f15\u7528\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u8fd9\u9879\u798f\u5229\u7684\u91d1\u989d\u9700\u8981\u7f29\u51cf\u3002<\/p>\n
Ganong\u548c\u4e0e\u4ed6\u5408\u8457\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8ba9\u8fd9\u9879\u6551\u6d4e\u5b8c\u5168\u5e9f\u6b62\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u603b\u652f\u51fa\u51cf\u5c114.3%\uff0c\u6bd42007\u5e74\u81f32009\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u964d\u5e45\u8fd8\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5c06\u6bcf\u5468\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u7f29\u51cf\u81f3200\u7f8e\u5143\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u652f\u51fa\u4e0b\u964d2.3%\uff0c\u5c06\u8865\u52a9\u5b9a\u4e3a400\u7f8e\u5143\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u652f\u51fa\u4e0b\u964d1.4%\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u7a46\u8fea\u5206\u6790(Moody’s Analytics)\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Mark Zandi\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u523a\u6fc0\u6027\u8865\u52a9\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e26\u6765\u4e0e\u63d0\u9ad8\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u91d1\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u76ca\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
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