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\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u5883\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u57284\u670830\u65e5-5\u67081\u65e5\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8bae\u8003\u8651\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u6700\u8fd1\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u548c\u516c\u5f00\u8bb2\u8bdd\u65f6\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bdd\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n
\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u8fde\u7eed\u6570\u5e74\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bbe\u5b9a\u76842%\u76ee\u6807\u540e\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5347\u81f3\u8be5\u76ee\u6807\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4f1a\u5c0f\u5e45\u9ad8\u4e8e\u548c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u8be5\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u539f\u672c\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u62db\u8058\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u653f\u5e9c\u51cf\u7a0e\u589e\u652f\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u884c\u3002\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u4ece\u53bb\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u5f00\u59cb\u964d\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n
\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u57c3\u6587\u65af(Charles Evans)\u5468\u4e00\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u8fdc\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e2%\uff0c\u5c06\u8868\u660e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u73af\u5883\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9700\u5411\u4e0b\u8c03\u6574\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u79f0\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6709\u7406\u7531\u57282020\u5e74\u5e95\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u57282021\u5e74\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u4ed6\u79f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5254\u9664\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u5e76\u8fde\u7eed\u6570\u6708\u4fdd\u6301\u57281.5%\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u90a3\u8fd9\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4ed6\u611f\u5230\u975e\u5e38\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u4ed6\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u7528\u964d\u606f\u6765\u9632\u8303\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fbe\u62c9\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5361\u666e\u5170(Robert Kaplan)\u5e76\u672a\u76f4\u63a5\u8d5e\u6210\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4e0a\u5468\u56db\u79f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u57281.5%\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6c34\u5e73\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0c\u4ed6\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5728\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u7eb3\u5165\u8003\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e3a\u907f\u514d\u5bf9\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u8baf\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u9aa4\u7136\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u6c9f\u901a\u964d\u606f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u663e\u5f97\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u79f0\u2236\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u5fc3\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u526f\u514b\u62c9\u91cc\u8fbe(Richard Clarida)\u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u63a5\u53d7CNBC\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8868\u793a\u964d\u606f\u95e8\u69db\u6709\u6240\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u4ed6\u4e3b\u52a8\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fc7\u53bb\u5e76\u975e\u53ea\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u65f6\u624d\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8be5\u592e\u884c\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u66fe\u7ecf\u201c\u91c7\u53d6\u8fc7\u51e0\u6b21\u4fdd\u9669\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u964d\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u4ece1994\u5e742\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u768412\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\u5c06\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4ece3.25%\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f36%\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u7531\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u53ca\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u57281995\u5e747\u6708\u81f31996\u5e741\u6708\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u4e09\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8c03\u4e86\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u53bb\u5e74\u52a0\u606f\u56db\u6b21\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b21\u662f\u5728\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u81f32.25%-2.5%\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8c03\u6574\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ece\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5df2\u6446\u8131\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u653e\u7f13\u52bf\u5934\u5e76\u5b9e\u73b0\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u4fdd\u6301\u89c2\u671b\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u90e8\u5206\u5b98\u5458\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5176\u4ed6\u5b98\u5458\u8003\u8651\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e(Donald Trump)\u5df2\u547c\u5401\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u5f97\u964d\u606f\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u5df2\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u4ece\u6ca1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u4f46\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u89e3\u91ca\u6539\u53d8\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u4e0d\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u4e0d\u4e86\u591a\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u653e\u7f13\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u5426\u964d\u606f\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7528\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u504f\u597d\u7684\u6307\u6807\u8861\u91cf\u76842\u6708\u548c3\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u5c06\u4e8e4\u670829\u65e5\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u53ec\u5f00\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a(JPMorgan Chase)\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4eba\u58eb\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c3\u6708\u4efd\u540c\u6bd4\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e3a1.6%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e1\u6708\u4efd\u76841.8%\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c7\u6708\u4efd\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u964d\u81f31.5%\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c7\u6708\u4efd\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u964d\u81f31.5%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a48%\uff0c10\u6708\u4efd\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u8d85\u8fc72%\u7684\u6982\u7387\u53ea\u67097%\u3002<\/p>\n
Cornerstone Macro\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6790\u5e08Roberto Perli\u7b49\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u96be\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e00\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u53c8\u7a81\u7136\u56de\u5347\u4e86\u5462\u3002\u5982\u679c\u968f\u540e\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u52a0\u606f\u6765\u626d\u8f6c\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n
Perli\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebd\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7406\u7531\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5145\u5206\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u901a\u80c0\u4ea7\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4f55\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u4e00\u76f4\u75b2\u8f6f\u3002\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b664\u6708\u4efd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u67655-10\u5e74\uff0c\u5e74\u5ea6\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u9884\u671f\u5c06\u4ece2.5%\u964d\u81f32.3%\uff0c\u4e0e40\u5e74\u6765\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u70b9\u76f8\u5f53\u3002<\/p>\n
\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c2%\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u662f\u76f8\u7b26\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u6ed1\u65f6\uff0c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4e0b\u8c03\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14(Jerome Powell)\u5728\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u5bf9\u6700\u8fd1\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65e0\u5948\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\u2236\u201c\u8fd9\u8f6e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u5df2\u7ecf\u957f\u8fbe10\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u5374\u4ecd\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u8fbe\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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