\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08\u7b80\u79f0\u2236\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff09\u5185\u90e8\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b98\u5458\u4e3b\u5f20\u653e\u5f03\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u6c9f\u901a\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f46\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u57c3\u6587\u65af(Charles Evans)\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u94c1\u7c89\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u5468\u4e00\u63a5\u53d7\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u559c\u6b22\u201c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u201d(dot plot)\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u660e\u767d\u4e3a\u4f55\u8fd9\u4e00\u5de5\u5177\u9700\u8981\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u201d\u6536\u96c6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u5e76\u4e14\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u671f\u663e\u793a\u5728\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\u8868\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u6240\u9884\u671f\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\u56db\u6b21\u3002\u201c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u201d\u6536\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u671f\u7efc\u8ff0(Summary of Economic Projections)\u4e2d\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u53cd\u6620\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e2d\u503c\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u622a\u81f33\u6708\u4efd\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u4e2d\u503c\u9884\u671f\u4e3a2019\u5e74\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7a33\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u201c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u201d\u663e\u793a\u51e0\u540d\u5b98\u5458\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5229\u7387\u5e94\u4e0a\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u96be\u4ee5\u89e3\u8bfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d7\u5230\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u52a8\u5411\u4e0d\u660e\uff0c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u671f\u7efc\u8ff0\u4e0d\u518d\u6709\u7528\u3002\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u57282012\u5e74\u5f15\u5165\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4e3b\u8981\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u73b0\u5728\u5904\u4e8e\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u4e0b\u964d\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9884\u671f\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u6216\u8bb8\u66f4\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u3002\u5723\u8def\u6613\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5e03\u62c9\u5fb7(James Bullard)\u548c\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5361\u4ec0\u5361\u5229(Neel Kashkari)\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u5df2\u547c\u5401\u4e0d\u518d\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6539\u53d8\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u671f\u7efc\u8ff0\u7684\u5448\u73b0\u65b9\u5f0f\u6301\u5f00\u653e\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6b63\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u6c9f\u901a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u65b0\u7684\u5448\u73b0\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4f46\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u79f0\uff0c\u5f53\u4e0b\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4ecd\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e0d\u96be\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8bfb\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u8bf4\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5f53\u70b9\u9635\u5341\u5206\u5206\u6563\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6697\u793a\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u5c31\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u516c\u5e03\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u672c\u8be5\u662f\u6709\u6240\u6697\u793a\u7684\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u542c\u5230\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebd\u7b49\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u5206\u6563\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u5c31\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u8bb6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u57c3\u6587\u65af\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u63cf\u7ed8\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u7684\u70b9\u9635\u6ca1\u6709\u805a\u62e2\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebd\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ebf\u7d22\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u70b9\u9635\u805a\u62e2\u65f6\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5bf9\u524d\u666f\u6301\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u662f\u900f\u660e\u6613\u61c2\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\u2236\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u63d0\u4f9b\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4e0d\u5bf9\u5916\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebd\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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