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\u8fd9\u79cd\u652f\u51fa\u4e5f\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u9f13\u52b1\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u4e3e\u503a\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u79f0\uff0c\u6b64\u7c7b\u652f\u51fa\u6709\u671b\u5e26\u6765\u4e00\u8f6e\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u589e\u957f\u671f\uff0c\u626d\u8f6c\u8bb8\u591a\u5bcc\u88d5\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u840e\u9761\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u53b6\u5168\u7403\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u80cc\u4e0a\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503a\u52a1\u53ea\u80fd\u9760\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u9ad8\u7a0e\u8d1f\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u6d88\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u4e34\u5de8\u989d\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6b64\u5e76\u4e0d\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u662f\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5c06\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74\u8fbe\u52303\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4ecd\u53ea\u67091.33%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65e5\u672c\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u5373\u5c06\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u5343\u4e07\u4ebf\u65e5\u5706\uff08\u5408\u8fd110\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1\u603b\u989d\u4e0e\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GDP)\u4e4b\u6bd4\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7250%\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u4ecd\u672a\u8d85\u8fc720\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1\u89c4\u6a21\u7ea6\u4e3aGDP\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e38\u5e74\u5927\u8086\u4e3e\u503a\u7684\u5e0c\u814a\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u672c\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6b63\u4e70\u8fdb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u751a\u81f3\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5e0c\u814a\u503a\u5238\u3002\u5c31\u8fde\u5370\u5ea6\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u5728\u5ba3\u626c\u653f\u5e9c\u589e\u52a0\u4e3e\u503a\u7684\u597d\u5904\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u6b64\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u660e\u663e\u7684\u62b5\u89e6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u653f\u5e9c\u5b66\u9662(Harvard Kennedy School)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u516c\u53f8\u6807\u666e\u5168\u7403(S&P Global Inc., SPGI)\u7684\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Paul Sheard\u8868\u793a\u2236\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d8\u4e86\u3002\u77e5\u8bc6\u6846\u67b6\u5df2\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8fd8\u79f0\u2236\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u518d\u62c5\u5fc3\u503a\u52a1\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u601d\u7ef4\u5df2\u9f13\u52b1\u653f\u5ba2\u4eec\u5927\u4e3e\u501f\u8d37\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c90\u5e74\u4ee3\u79c9\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u7edf\u89c2\u5ff5\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u501f\u8d37\u6761\u4ef6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5927\u4e3a\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u5168\u7403\u5316\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u52a0\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u50a8\u84c4\u5145\u6c9b\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u94b1\u53ef\u7528\u6765\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e9b\u50a8\u84c4\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5df2\u4e89\u76f8\u4e70\u5165\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u53d1\u884c\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5927\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u907f\u9669\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e76\u4e0d\u5728\u610f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5fae\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u6210\u672c\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u501f\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e26\u9886\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u4e3e\u501f\u503a\u63a8\u52a8\u75ab\u60c5\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u51fa\u53f0\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4(Congressional Budget Office)\u5c31\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u52302021\u5e74\u5e95\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u503a\u52a1\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a(JPMorgan)\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd9\u6837\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e3e\u503a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u603b\u50a8\u84c4\u4e5f\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7(International Monetary Fund, \u7b80\u79f0IMF)\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u603b\u50a8\u84c4\u4ef7\u503c\u8d85\u8fc725\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u538b\u4f4e\u4e86\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7a46\u8fea\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u670d\u52a1\u516c\u53f8(Moody’s Investors Service)\u8d1f\u8d23\u4fe1\u8d37\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u526f\u8463\u4e8b\u603b\u7ecf\u7406Elena Duggar\u8868\u793a\u2236\u201c\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u4e1c\u897f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u514d\u53d7\u503a\u52a1\u81a8\u80c0\u4e4b\u82e6\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u507f\u503a\u6210\u672c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u6279\u8bc4\u4eba\u58eb\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u8ba1\u5212\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u548c\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u9f13\u52b1\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4e3e\u503a\u548c\u5192\u9669\u7684\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u4e2d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7ed9\u80cc\u8d1f\u5de8\u5927\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e26\u6765\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u524d\u6210\u5458\u3001\u4f26\u6566\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u8a89\u4f11\u6559\u6388Charles Goodhart\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ee4\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u4fdd\u6301\u4f4e\u5ec9\u7684\u5168\u7403\u50a8\u84c4\u6f6e\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u5185\u9000\u53bb\u3002\u4ed6\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece\u8fd1\u671f\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u5305\u62ec2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u7684\u75b2\u8f6f\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u5df2\u884c\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u5c06\u519b\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u60f3\u8457\u4e0a\u4e00\u573a\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u653f\u5e9c\u4ee5\u524d\u505a\u5f97\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6b21\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u7528\u529b\u8fc7\u731b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7ec4\u7ec7\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u534f\u4f1a(Institute of International Finance)\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c2020\u5e74\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u603b\u989d\u4e0e\u5168\u7403GDP\u4e4b\u6bd4\u4ece\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u768488%\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f3105%\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u534f\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u603b\u989d\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u589e\u52a010\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fbe\u523092\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u589e\u52a0\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f88\u5feb\u4ece\u5b9e\u65bd\u523a\u6fc0\u8f6c\u5411\u524a\u51cf\u8d64\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n
\u60e8\u75db\u7684\u5e0c\u814a\u5371\u673a\u66fe\u51e0\u4e4e\u8feb\u4f7f\u8be5\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u6b27\u5143\u533a\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u4eca\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c31\u8fde\u5e0c\u814a\u4e5f\u53d1\u73b0\u589e\u52a0\u503a\u52a1\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5e2e\u52a9\u7ef4\u6301\u7684\u4f4e\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u2018\u7f6a\u4eba\u2019\u3002\u201d\u524d\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u3001\u73b0\u610f\u5927\u5229\u94f6\u884c\u88d5\u4fe1(UniCredit)\u8463\u4e8b\u957fPier Carlo Padoan\u79f0\u3002\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u53d1\u751f\u540e\uff0c\u5404\u65b9\u76f8\u4e92\u6307\u8d23\u3002\u800c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5916\u6e90\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u653f\u7b56\u56de\u5e94\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u5305\u62ec\u610f\u5927\u5229\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u6293\u4f4f\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u652f\u51fa\u6765\u6446\u8131\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4f4e\u8ff7\u3002\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5c3d\u5feb\u62b9\u53bb\u6240\u6709\u8870\u9000\u7684\u75d5\u8ff9\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u5174\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n
\u636e\u534e\u76db\u987f\u667a\u5e93\u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240(Peterson Institute for International Economics)\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u81ea\u75ab\u60c5\u66b4\u53d1\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5df2\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e8,000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u7ea6\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u5e74\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u4ea7\u503c\u7684\u516d\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u8fd8\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u51fa\u6570\u5343\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4ecd\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u652f\u51fa\u65e2\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u6570\u5b57\u5316\u548c\u6269\u5927\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5168\u7403\u5927\u591a\u6570\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u73b0\u5728\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ece2010\u5e74\u8d77\u503e\u5411\u8d22\u653f\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u4f01\u4e1a\u5012\u95ed\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u8005\u5931\u4e1a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7559\u4e0b\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u521b\u4f24\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b27\u6d32\u90e8\u5206\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\u6781\u5176\u4e25\u683c\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u751a\u81f3\u672a\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u964d\u4f4e\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u4e0eGDP\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4f\u529b\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u4f4e\u8ff7\u62d6\u7d2f\u4e86GDP\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u8c0b\u5212\u76f8\u543b\u5408\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u673a\u6784\u90fd\u575a\u6301\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8d22\u653f\u7d27\u7f29\u548c\u589e\u957f\u4e4f\u529b\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u98ce\u8d77\u4e91\u6d8c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ece\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u6709\u591a\u4f59\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u50a8\u84c4\u5c06\u88ab\u653f\u5e9c\u8d64\u5b57\u6240\u541e\u566c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u50a8\u84c4\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u56e4\u79ef\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u50cf20\u4e16\u7eaa\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e38\u505a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3001\u5bf9\u5de5\u5382\u548c\u673a\u68b0\u8fdb\u884c\u5de8\u989d\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4ea7\u6cb9\u56fd\u62e5\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5c06\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6240\u5f97\u8d44\u91d1\u7528\u4e8e\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u50a8\u84c4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8428\u9ed8\u65af(Lawrence Summers)\u66fe\u57282014\u5e74\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u3001\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u632f\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u4ee3\u96be\u4ee5\u6446\u8131\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u96be\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u5176\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u4ed6\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6ede\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u610f\u5473\u8457\u653f\u5e9c\u5fc5\u987b\u6311\u8d77\u8fd9\u4e2a\u91cd\u62c5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8428\u9ed8\u65af\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u8bf4\u2236\u201c\u5982\u679c\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u5168\u7403\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6ede\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u5de8\u5927\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u79c1\u4eba\u50a8\u84c4\u8fc7\u5269\u4e14\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458Goodhart\u79f0\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5371\u9669\u662f\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb30\u5e74\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u9006\u8f6c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4eba\u53e3\u5927\u9006\u8f6c\u300b(The Great Demographic Reversal)\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0cGoodhart\u4e0e\u5408\u8457\u8005Manoj Pradhan\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5212\u65f6\u4ee3\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52b3\u52a8\u5e74\u9f84\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u4e16\u754c\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5317\u7f8e\u3001\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7b49\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6570\u5b57\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u524d\u82cf\u8054\u878d\u5165\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5e9e\u5927\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u538b\u4f4e\u4e86\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u548c\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u7f3a\u4e4f\u653f\u5e9c\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u4e14\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u5e74\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u6ce8\u5165\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46Goodhart\u548cPradhan\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u8457\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8001\u9f84\u4eba\u53e3\u82b1\u6389\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u9ad8\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4f5c\u51fa\u6700\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u73b0\u5df2\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u4eec\u5199\u9053\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u5927\u9006\u8f6c\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
Goodhart\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u4f9d\u9760\u5347\u606f\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u90a3\u53b6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u88ab\u8feb\u4f5c\u51fa\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5373\u589e\u52a0\u7a0e\u6536\u548c\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u611f\u5230\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u66fe\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6267\u653f\u65f6\u671f\u62c5\u4efb\u91cd\u8981\u653f\u5e9c\u804c\u52a1\u7684\u8428\u9ed8\u65af\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u8ba1\u5212\u6700\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u8bb6\u3002\u8428\u9ed8\u65af\u79f0\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u8ba1\u5212\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9884\u671f\u770b\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u8428\u9ed8\u65af\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u62e5\u6709\u540c\u6837\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002IMF\u5df2\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7ed9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u8d64\u5b57\u7ea6\u5360GDP\u76847%\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u5c0f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80cc\u8d1f\u5927\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6784\u6210\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u610f\u5473\u8457GDP\u548c\u7a0e\u6536\u6536\u5165\u5728\u540d\u4e49\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0a\u6709\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\u73b0\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u5219\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u66fe\u5e2e\u52a9\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7b49\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u51cf\u8f7b\u4e86\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9274\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u73b0\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f88\u5c11\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5229\u7387\u7a0d\u9ad8\u4e00\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u4e50\u4e8e\u628a\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u7ed3\u675f\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5229\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u96f6\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u65f6\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u53bb\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f26\u6566\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u3001\u6b27\u6d32\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00Paul De Grauwe\u8bf4\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u67d0\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u503a\u52a1\u6bd4\u7387\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u81ea\u7136\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n
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