\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90fd\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5f53\u524d\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u610f\u5473\u8457\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u718a\u5e02\u65e0\u8bba\u4f55\u65f6\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u90fd\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f88\u6df1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u77e5\u9053\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u6765\u770b\u80a1\u7968\u4f30\u503c\u4e0e\u718a\u5e02\u957f\u77ed\u4e4b\u95f4\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u65e2\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u8bb6\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u83b7\u5f97\u6170\u85c9\u3002<\/p>\n
1900\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u6f2b\u957f\u718a\u5e02\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u9ad8\u4f30\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6700\u77ed\u718a\u5e02\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u6839\u636eNed Davis Research\u4fdd\u7559\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u7b14\u8005\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u8fd9\u4e24\u8f6e\u718a\u5e02\u5206\u522b\u59cb\u4e8e1939\u5e749\u6708\u548c1998\u5e747\u6708\u3002\u524d\u8005\u6301\u7eed\u4e86\u8fd1\u4e09\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u4e86\u4e0d\u5230\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u90a3\u8f6e\u6700\u957f\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u76d8\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387(CAPE)\u4e3a16.45\u500d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f4e\u4e8eCAPE\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u80a1\u5e02\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u56e0\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66(Yale University)\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\uff0e\u5e2d\u52d2(Robert Shiller)\u800c\u77e5\u540d\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb10\u5e74\u95f4\u7ecf\u901a\u80c0\u56e0\u7d20\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u6da6\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u77ed\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0cCAPE\u662f\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6570\u503c\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u9ad8\u8fbe38.3\u500d\u3002\u636e\u5e2d\u52d2\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u9ad8\u4e8e1871\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8bfb\u6570\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5e02\u573a\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u6301\u7eed\u4e86\u4e0d\u5230\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u7b14\u8005\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u5305\u62ec2020\u5e74\u521d\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u718a\u5e02\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u8fd9\u6b21\u718a\u5e02\u662f\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\uff0c\u4e0e\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u503c\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u4f46\u82e5\u5c06\u6b64\u6b21\u718a\u5e02\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u5185\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7b14\u8005\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u66f4\u7ad9\u5f97\u4f4f\u811a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u718a\u5e02\u6bd41998\u5e747\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u66f4\u77ed\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u7684CAPE\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u5e02\u573a\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u5f97\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n
\u867d\u7136\u6839\u636e\u4f30\u503c\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u957f\u77ed\u5e76\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebd\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8eCAPE\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u7b14\u8005\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u4e03\u9879\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u4e14\u5907\u53d7\u63a8\u5d07\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u6bcf\u4e00\u9879\u6307\u6807\u540c\u6837\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u6709\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u7b14\u8005\u4ee5\u524d\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u8fc7\u3002\u8fd9\u4e03\u9879\u6307\u6807\u5206\u522b\u662f\u2236\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u3001\u5e02\u9500\u7387\u3001\u5e02\u8d26\u7387\u3001\u80a1\u606f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3001\u5df4\u83f2\u7279(Buffett)\u6307\u6807\uff08\u80a1\u5e02\u603b\u5e02\u503c\u4e0eGDP\u4e4b\u6bd4\uff09\u3001Q\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u91cd\u7f6e\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u6bd4\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u666e\u901a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u914d\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f53\u7b14\u8005\u628a\u5173\u6ce8\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u65f6\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u4e3e\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bd41973-1974\u5e74\u548c2007-2009\u5e74\u7684\u718a\u5e02\uff0c\u4ece\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u6307\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u6b21\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u53d7\u521b\u7a0b\u5ea6\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u524d\u4e00\u6b21\u718a\u5e02\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0cCAPE\u4e3a18.7\u500d\uff1b\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u718a\u5e02\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0cCAPE\u4e3a27.3\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f30\u503c\u4f9d\u7136\u91cd\u8981<\/p>\n
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\u90a3\u53b6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u718a\u5e02\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u53c8\u662f\u4ec0\u53b6\u5462\uff1f\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u4f17\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e27\u5931\u3002\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u4f17\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4f55\u65f6\u5f00\u59cb\u6d88\u9000\u4ee5\u53ca\u9700\u8981\u591a\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u6062\u590d\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u4f30\u503c\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0d\u76f8\u4e0a\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5e2d\u52d2\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u5728\u5176\u300a\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66: \u6545\u4e8b\u5982\u4f55\u4f20\u64ad\u5e76\u63a8\u52a8\u91cd\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u300b(Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events)\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bba\u70b9\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u53d9\u4e8b\u201d\u662f\u6307\u201c\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6d89\u53ca\u4eba\u7c7b\u5174\u8da3\u548c\u60c5\u611f\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6545\u4e8b\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u201d\u3002\u5177\u6709\u8bbd\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u867d\u56e0CAPE\u800c\u6210\u540d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5374\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u2236\u4e00\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u65f6\u6d89\u53ca\u67d0\u4e9b\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u5e7f\u4e3a\u4f20\u64ad\u548c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u751f\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u559c\u6b22\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u7eaf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53cd\u9988\u6216\u4e58\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u5e2d\u52d2\u5728\u4e00\u5c01\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8bf4\u660e\u2236\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4ece20\u4e16\u7eaa20\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u5f00\u59cb\u8ff7\u604b\u201c\u7ecf\u7eaa\u4eba\u8d37\u6b3e\u201d(brokers’ loans)\u4e00\u8bcd\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6307\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u4fdd\u8bc1\u91d1\u8d37\u6b3e\u3002<\/p>\n
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2020\u5e74\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u903b\u8f91<\/p>\n
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